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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."