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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.